As we approach Valentine’s Day, chocolate lovers may need to brace themselves for higher prices on their favorite sweet treats. The main ingredient in chocolate – cocoa – has seen its price skyrocket over the past year due to the devastating impacts of climate change.
The cacao bean, which is processed into cocoa, is highly sensitive to changes in temperature and rainfall.
In recent years, the major cacao-producing regions of West Africa have experienced a dangerous combination of extreme heat, drought, and heavy rainfall – all of which are linked to global warming and majorly hit on the occasion of Valentine’s Day.
According to a new report by Climate Central, over the past decade, climate change has added an extra 3 weeks of temperatures over 32°C (89.6°F) during the main cacao growing season in top producers Ivory Coast and Ghana.
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Last year alone, these high temperatures occurred for at least 42 days across two-thirds of the analyzed cacao-growing areas.
“Excessive heat can contribute to a reduction in the quantity and quality of the harvest,” the report states. The heat and erratic weather patterns have also led to increased fungal diseases and pest infestations that further damage cacao crops.
As a result, global cocoa production is estimated to have declined by 14% in the 2023-2024 season, falling to 4.2 million metric tons from 4.9 million the previous year, according to the World Bank. People are not stopping to buy chocolates on Valentine’s Day.
This supply crunch has sent cocoa futures prices soaring – up 178% in 2024 alone, reaching a record high of over $12,900 per metric ton in December.
“We’ve dealt with price fluctuations before, but nothing on this scale,” said Neil Cox, CEO of Diana’s, a brand known for its chocolate-covered frozen bananas.
“Cocoa prices have surged by three to four times compared to last year, making this the most volatile period we’ve ever experienced on the occasion of Valentine’s Day.”
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The skyrocketing costs of the key ingredient have left chocolate makers with little choice but to pass those increases on to consumers. Many are having to raise their prices by 20% or more, while also looking for ways to offset the higher costs.
“We used to look at hazelnuts and pistachios as an expensive inclusion,” said renowned chocolatier Jacques Torres. “Today, those nuts allow us to lower the cost of our chocolate bars.”
Other chocolate companies are resorting to “shrinkflation” – reducing the size of their products without proportionately lowering the prices. The popular 30-piece bags of mini candy bars may now only contain 20 pieces, for example, while the price tag stays the same due to excess demand on Valentine’s Day.
Hershey, one of the world’s largest chocolate makers, even went so far as to request permission from regulators to buy over 90,000 metric tons of cocoa – more than nine times the normal limit. Though the request was denied, it highlights the desperation of companies trying to secure adequate supplies.
“The good news is that if you get trees planted for shade, you can actually reduce temperatures from getting as hot as they do in these deforested areas,” said Jason Clay of the World Wildlife Fund. But he warned that chocolate producers need to work together on protective measures, rather than competing, in order to truly mitigate the impacts of climate change.
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In the meantime, consumers may have to get used to more nuts, fruits, and other fillers in their chocolate as manufacturers look for ways to stretch their cocoa supplies. And they may need to brace themselves for sticker shock when buying those heart-shaped boxes for their Valentine’s day.
“Now the big question is about Easter,” Torres said. “The bigger question is next Christmas — that’s where things are going to be a little bit more sticky.”
Some younger consumers may already be adapting, with sales of non-chocolate candies seeing a bigger jump than either chocolate or gum and mints last year. As climate change continues to disrupt global cocoa production, the classic chocolate Valentine’s Day gift may become a luxury that not everyone can afford.